Every UFC event, I take a look at the entire card and do my best to make predictions on GuysNation for who’s going to win.  I usually do better than a coin-flipping monkey, and even when I don’t make the correct predictions, I at least give you an idea as to why I’m leaning in one direction or another.  In several cases, I toss up a poll to let folks have an easy way of providing their input, though comment responses at the end of the article are always encouraged!

Preliminary card

Don’t expect a ton of great logic here.  It’s the Prelims, and these fighters aren’t very well known anyway, so there’s a small chance I’ve seen them fight, and the information about them floating on the internet is typically more sparse than for other fighters.

* Bantamweight bout:
Mexico – Will Campuzano vs. United States – Chris Cariaso

Prior to losing his last fight, Cariaso was on a four fight win streak.  The guy who stopped him hasn’t lost in his past 25 fights.  Campuzano has lost three of his last five.

Prediction:  Chris Cariaso

* Welterweight bout:
United States – Charlie Brenneman vs. Brazil – Amilcar Alves

Brenneman goes to decision far too often for my taste, and Alves has the knack of submitting guys.

Prediction:  Amilcar Alves

Preliminary card (Facebook.com Live Stream)

* Lightweight bout:
United States – Waylon Lowe vs. Brazil – Willamy Freire

Lowe is a dececnt fighter, at 9-3, but lost his last fight by split decision.  Freire is a newcomer to fighting in the UFC (or in the United States in general), but he’s on an impressive 11 fight win streak, and that’s all I need to know.

Prediction:  Willamy Freire

* Featherweight bout:
United States – Mike Brown vs. Brazil – Rani Yahya

Both of these guys are coming off of decision losses, though Mike Brown’s loss was by split decision.  I don’t like the fact that Mike Brown is fighting three weeks after his last fight, but if he’s medically cleared to go, I guess that’s good enough for me.  Yahya’s strength is winning by submission, which Brown seems somewhat prone to, with four of his seven losses coming that way… but none of them were in the past 5 years.  When it all stacks up, Mike Brown’s resume dominates Yahya.

Prediction:  Mike Brown

* Welterweight bout:
United States – DaMarques Johnson vs. United States – Mike Guymon

DaMarques has lost three of his last five, but he looked good in three of those fights.  Guymon has lost two of his last three, and his only victory was by decision.

Prediction:  DaMarques Johnson

* Lightweight bout:
United States – Cody McKenzie vs. The Bahamas – Yves Edwards

Though none of them have been in UFC (nor WEC nor anywhere else I’ve heard of), Cody McKenzie is undefeated in 12 fights, winning the past ten of them by first round Guillotine Choke.  Yves Edwards has more than four times the amount of experience as McKenzie, hasn’t lost by submission in nearly 5 years, but his last three fights have gone to decision.  It’s a tough call, but one of these guys has a trend I like, the other has a trend I despise.

Prediction:  Cody McKenzie

Main card

* Lightweight bout:
United States – Cole Miller vs. United States – Matt Wiman

Wiman is certainly a talented fighter, but there’s just something about the way Cole Miller fights that makes it tough to predict against him.

Prediction:  Cole Miller

* Heavyweight bout:
United States – Pat Barry vs. United States Joey Beltran

The fact that Joey Beltran has never lost two fights in a row would seemingly give him an edge in this fight, as he lost his last fight back in September.  Because it was by decision, I don’t see that as being such a problem.  Barry has also never lost two in a row, but his MMA career resume includes about half as many fights.  Barry has only lost fights by submission, a means by which Beltran has only won one fight – thirteen fights ago back in 2007.

Prediction:  Pat Barry

* Featherweight bout:
Canada – Mark Hominick vs. United States – George Roop

Hominick is on an impressive four fight win streak.  Roop is 1-1-1 in his last three, but the loss was in a different weight class, the draw won Fight Of The Night honors, and the win was a second round knockout.  Now that he has been back at Featherweight for nearly a full year, George Roop is likely more comfortable at the weight and is learning to maximize his abilities and figure out what his top abilities are inside the cage.  This one’s a tough call.

Prediction:  George Roop

* Heavyweight bout:
United States – Matt Mitrione vs. Canada – Tim Hague

Tim Hague is a somewhat streaky fighter, having won 5 in a row prior to a three fight losing streak, from which Hague recovered and has now won two in a row.  Those last two fights weren’t in UFC, however, which calls into question the difficulty of those fights.  Matt Mitrione, however, has surprised me in each of his three fights since ending his run in the house on The Ultimate Fighter.  I seem to get burned whenever I bet against him, so I won’t.  Everything I’ve heard gives credence to the fact that Mitrione is perfecting his craft more and more each fight.

Prediction:  Matt Mitrione

* Lightweight bout:
United States – Evan Dunham vs. United States – Melvin Guillard

Whenever one fighter is set to fight a high profile opponent, only to have the fight changed due to the high profile opponent pulling out of the fight due to injury, I typically bet against the replacement opponent.  Melvin Guillard was originally scheduled to fight on the preliminaries, and he only got a spot in the main event because KenFlo got injured, leaving Evan Dunham in need of an opponent.  Dunham is a rising star in UFC, and at 11-1, it’s hard to bet against him, especially when he’s coming off his only career loss, a fight which was honored with a Fight Of The Night superlative at UFC 119.

Prediction:  Evan Dunham