The best way to know who’s going to win an NFL game is to take multiple perspectives and pick out what makes the most sense to you, weigh the odds and go from there. That’s what we’ve got for you here in the Who’s Winning article… which is evolving into “Best Bets” starting this week. We’re not just going to tell you which team is going to win, but we’re going to tell you how confident we are, and on occasion we’ll include the betting lines.
Roll out, NFL Week 10 Sunday picks…
Philly Eagles @ Green Bay Packers
Pigskin Pig – With Aaron Rodgers out and Senecca Wallace starting under center for the Packers, I’m not sure what to expect… but I’m not thrilled with the prospects for the home team. The Eagles defense is actually doing fairly well, and I think they’ll focus on the Packers’ run game. They showed last week they can put up a ton of points, so I think Philly has what it takes to win what would’ve been considered an upset two weeks ago. In terms of confidence, I’d say 55-to-60%.
Bryan Lienesch (@bclienesch) – Green Bay had better squeeze out more offense because I sincerely doubt their defense is going to be able to keep Philadelphia at bay. Will Foles have another perfect day? Of course not, but keep in mind this defense suffered major injuries long before the offense skill positions started dropping like flies, and the defense wasn’t nearly as good to begin with. I’m actually going to agree with you, 60% sure the Eagles will win.
Pigskin Pig – The line is currently set at the Packers being a 1.5 point favorite, which is essentially just telling you to pick the winner. The point-line is at 47. Given Philly has scored fewer than 10 points in 2 of the past 3 games, and fewer than 21 points four times this year, mixed with the Packers not having their Pro Bowl QB, I’d easily pick the UNDER.
Bryan Lienesch (@bclienesch) – I don’t know about total points, that always seems like such a fluky thing to me. But as far as the line goes, if I’m picking the Eagles, obviously I don’t like Green Bay to cover.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tennessee Titans
Bryan Lienesch (@bclienesch) – Obviously, I like the Titans in this one. I’m not sure Jacksonville is good enough to steal a game this season, and I’m certainly not going to predict that to happen. I’m about 90% certain Tennessee will win.
Pigskin Pig – This might be a divisional game, but with Justin Blackmon suspended and Cecil Shorts questionable, I don’t see much chance in them winning. This is an easy game to pick the Titans, and I’m about 90% sure about it. The line is 11, and I don’t think it’ll be nearly that close. The point total is set at 41 points, and unless you figure the Titans are going to score over 30, which they only did once this season, I wouldn’t bet the OVER.
Bryan Lienesch (@bclienesch) – I know Jacksonville doesn’t make a habit of getting blown out, but I think this game can get away from them. I’ll take the Over.
Buffalo Bills @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Pigskin Pig – Both of these teams are on two game losing streaks, having played some tough teams in those weeks. The Steelers finally found a way to uncap their offense, surpassing 30 points for the first time this season. I’m known for having trouble staying on the Bills bandwagon, and I’ve heard some rumblings that they might get their QB back this week, but I’ll still go with the Steelers, my confidence level still fairly low at about 55-to-60%.
Bryan Lienesch (@bclienesch) – You love this 55/60 percent range, huh? Enough room for plausible uncertainty. Well I DON’T think there’s a 40% chance that Jeff Tuel can lead these Bills to a victory, and that’s why I’m going to do something I’ve done rarely all season: I’m going to pick the Steelers, and I’m 75% certain about that.
Pigskin Pig – With the Steelers favored currently by 3 points, that’s not a bet I’d touch, especially with the way the Bills have kept things to within 3 points four times this season already. The 44 points, however, I’d go the OVER in this one. The Steelers have only surpassed 22 points in four games this season, and the Bills five times, but the Bills have allowed 20 points or more in EVERY game this season.
Bryan Lienesch (@bclienesch) – The line seems fair to me. It’s going to be a score one way or another. But you’re taking the Over in this one? Really? I see two inept offenses here in a battle of who can make the fewest mistakes. I’d almost surely take the Under.
Oakland Raiders @ New York Giants
Bryan Lienesch (@bclienesch) – I’ve been saying it for a while now, this Terrelle Pryor kid is actually kind of intriguing. What a season it’s come to where I think, right now, he’s the better quarterback in this match up. But that’s only one position and Oakland is just disgusting almost everywhere else. New York’s at home Oakland is coming across the country and they’re not going to have McFadden and, yeah, there’s just too many reasons to pick the Giants. I’m 70% certain they’ll win this one. That line, though, seems to close. I actually like New York to win by at least two scores.
Pigskin Pig – The Raiders had a tough time last week, letting the Eagles get all those touchdowns, and now they have to cross the country to face a Giants team who has won their last two games and is going to be fresh off a bye week. The Giants should win by more than 7, and i’m 70% sure of that. The Giants have only attained 22 points four times this season, so I’m not sure they’ll be able to cover their half of the current line at 43.5. I’d say the safe bet would be the UNDER, unless you like the Raiders to win.
Bryan Lienesch (@bclienesch) – That line, though, seems to close. I actually like New York to win by at least two scores.
St Louis Rams @ Indianapolis Colts
Pigskin Pig – Both of these teams seemed to have improved this season, but the Colts are a playoff team and the Rams aren’t. The Rams are on a three game losing streak, the Colts are finding new offensive weapons with Reggie Wayne out, and they play well at home. Confidence level in the Colts is about 85%.
Bryan Lienesch (@bclienesch) – Indianapolis is obviously the better team. The only question here is do they crap they bed here at home like they did against Miami. I don’t think they will and I think Killer Clementine or whoever that quarterback for St. Louis is is going to make the Indy secondary look like a Pro Bowl team. 75% certain, and I’m only that low on confidence because, like I said, we’ve seen the Colts sputter before.
Pigskin Pig – The Colts always score 20 or more at home, scoring 39 and 34 in their last two games in Indianapolis, so the 44 point total seems definitely a bit too low, especially since the Rams have eclipsed 20 points in 5 of their games and have yet to be held below 7. In all of their road losses this year, giving 10 points to the Rams wouldn’t help them get a victory, so I’d be fine giving up 9.5 points and taking the Colts.
Bryan Lienesch (@bclienesch) – I don’t know, if St. Louis can only scrounge together 10 or 13, do you really like the Colts to put up 31? At some point Chuck Pagano’s going to take his foot off the pedal if he pulls away. I guess with a gun to my head I’d take the Under there. As for the 9.5-point line, yes, I think the Colts will win by 10 or better.
Seattle Seahawks @ Atlanta Falcons
Bryan Lienesch (@bclienesch) – We all know Seattle is a very different team away from the great Northwest, so I wouldn’t touch this 6-point line with the sword of Gondor. One way or another, it’s going to be close and I wouldn’t be shocked if a field goal as time expires decides it. In which case, how much rallying luck does Seattle have up its sleeve? I’m going to bank on “very little” and say Atlanta pulls the upset. I’m 60% confident in that, which is more than anyone should ever be when it comes to this year’s Falcons.
Pigskin Pig – The Seahawks traveling cross country are at a slight disadvantage, but it won’t be enough to take away the advantages they have. The Atlanta Falcons are suffering this season, and it’s going to be quite evident unless Roddy White plays. Either way, I’m confident in the Seahawks to win, at about 70%, and I’d have no problem giving up 6 points. The line is at 44.5 points, and seeing as how the Seahawks aren’t as dangerous on the road, I’d have no problem taking the UNDER.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens
Pigskin Pig – The Bengals are a very tough team this season, and the Ravens are a big disappointment. Cinci’s top defensive lineman Geno Atkins is out for the rest of the season, so the Ravens should have a lot more success than they would’ve with him available. This being a divisional game, I typically give the edge to the home team and I rely less on the teams records. The Ravens have weapons, and so it shouldn’t be a stretch of the imagination to see them win this game. They’re coming off of two losing efforts on the road against divisional opponents in the past three weeks, with a bye week thrown in the middle. I’d imagine that the Bengals game might’ve been the focus of a lot of the players who likely thought the Browns wouldn’t have posed as much of a threat last week. My confidence level in the Ravens is probably 55-to-60%.
Bryan Lienesch (@bclienesch) – The more I watch this Ravens team, the more convinced I become that they just no longer have it. Don’t get me wrong, they had a great run, but even The Wire came to an end, no? This division and this game have one thing in common: its Cincinnatti’s to lose, and I don’t think they will. Even on the road, I think that defense will stifle Ray Rice like everyone has this season and Joe Flacco won’t earn his new contract having to go through the air. I’m 75% certain Cincinnati wins, even with it being a rivalry game on the road.
Pigskin Pig – Wow, another 44 point line? The Ravens have only surpassed 22 in three of their games so far this year, and the Bengals have only done it four times. I’d go the UNDER, though I’m not as confident in it. The Bengals being favored by 1.5 makes this a pick ’em game.
Bryan Lienesch (@bclienesch) – I wouldn’t be surprised if this game didn’t get to half that point total, to be honest. And you’re right, I’m almost certain this will not be a one-point game when all is said and done.
Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears
Bryan Lienesch (@bclienesch) – This should actually be a really good game. Maybe even the best of the week. Either team you pick, I think the absolute MOST you can put in terms of certainty is 55%. I think Detroit is the better team and I think this is the game where Detroit’s defense finally steps up and plays professional football. I’ll take the Lions with just what I said: 55% certainty.
Pigskin Pig – The Lions are coming off of three games that should be fairly telling. They beat the tough Browns in Cleveland by 14 after trailing to start the 4th Quarter. They lost at home to a very competitive Bengals team by just 3 points, and then they staged another comeback and beat the Cowboys. The Bears won in Green Bay after knocking out Aaron Rodgers, but that was after a bye week and they only won by 7. Prior to their bye, Chicago lost to the lackluster Redskins and only beat the Giants at home by 6. For me, this is an easy pick to make, with the Lions winning on the road. Because it’s a divisional game, I’ll say I’m 65% sure. The point spread of 3 is about as much as I’d be willing to give up. The line of 49.5 is probably a bit low, because the last time these two teams squared off, they combined for 72. The Lions have averaged 28 their past three games and are coming off of a bye, and the Bears are averaging just over 30. Take the OVER.
Carolina Panthers @ San Francisco 49ers
Pigskin Pig – Given that the 49ers are coming off a bye week and the Panthers have to go cross-country, I’ll go with the 49ers here, even though I’m not entirely enamored by them. My confidence level, however, is probably 65% or more.
Bryan Lienesch (@bclienesch) – I like your thinking on this one. I’m not buying into this Carolina team like everyone else. They are a middle-of-the-road club like I’ve said they are all season. They regress back towards .500 here losing on the road to San Francisco. 80% certainty.
Pigskin Pig – Hey look, the point total line is at 43. Vegas took a chance there… and I’ll go the OVER. Only twice have the Panthers been held below 23 points this season, and they’re averaging 31 over the past three weeks. With Johnathan Stewart available to their offense starting last week, their offense has plenty of potential to improve. The 49ers have been held under 30 points only twice this season, and their defense isn’t smothering at this point like what they were capable of doing in the past. The 49ers winning by more than 6? Only one game this season was that close for them, and that was opening week against the Packers who had their full compliment of weapons, so if you think the 49ers will win, you should probably be confident they can cover 6 points.
Bryan Lienesch (@bclienesch) – Oh, yeah, Over for sure. Cam Newton and Colin Kaepernick? Are you kidding me? I’d set the line at 50 points at the very least. But, not so fast on that spread, my friend. I think this’ll be a close one which is why any money that would be spent on this game is probably better left in your pocket.
Houston Texans @ Arizona Cardinals
Bryan Lienesch (@bclienesch) – Houston is not going to finish the year 4-12. What they need is a back-against-the-wall, turnaround victory and I think they’ll find one against Arizona here. I know they’re on the road and their coach is having major health issues and Case Keenum is playing like, well, Case Keenum, but that’s why I like Houston here. Their season should continue to spiral out of control but it won’t. I’m 70% confident in that.
Pigskin Pig – Despite the failed expectations for the Houston Texans, they’re not playing terrible anymore, and their last two losses have been to upper-eschelon teams by small margins. The Cardinals have fared well in their past three games despite losing two of them. I’m going out on a limb here and I’ll take the Cardinals at home, with 55% confidence. The line with Arizona by 2 means nothing, but the points at 41.5, I’ll take the UNDER, because I’m not sure that Houston can cover their 20, and I don’t see the Cardinals doing much more than 24.
Denver Broncos @ San Diego Chargers
Pigskin Pig – Sure, there’s a change in the Broncos’ head coaching position with John Fox needing surgery, but Denver should still be able to get the win. Yes, it’s a divisional opponent on the road, but the Chargers lost to the Redskins last week and they’ve shown that they’re not an upper eschelon team so far this year. Peyton Manning with a bye week to prepare? I’m 70% confident in the Broncos this week.
Bryan Lienesch (@bclienesch) – A Colts loss and a bad game against the Redskins and all of the sudden were supposed to be squeamish about this Broncos team that we were drooling over in the first quarter of the season. Well, I don’t buy it. Denver wins handily here in a statement game for them. 85% certainty.
Pigskin Pig – Now here’s a fun point total to consider, 57. Five times this season, Denver has surpassed the 40 point mark, and they’ve never been held below 33. Just ask yourself whether you think the Chargers are going to score more than 21… and with the Broncos allowing more than 17 points in each of their games thus far and the Chargers never having scored fewer than 17 in a game, I’m feeling confident in the OVER for the game. In three of their four losses this year, spotting the Chargers 7 points would get them a win, but the Texans, Titans and Redskins aren’t nearly in the class of Denver, who only played that close with the Cowboys in Dallas and in their emotional loss in Indianapolis. If you like the Broncos, the 7 points shouldn’t scare you off, especially after a bye week.
Bryan Lienesch (@bclienesch) – 57 is probably as high as the oddsmakers are willing to go, but I’ll tell ya, they should go higher. If there was a game that could rival that shootout Denver had with Dallas, it’d be this game. And in a shootout, you should never drop money on any spread larger than like 3 points.
Dallas Cowboys @ New Orleans Saints
Bryan Lienesch (@bclienesch) – I guess we’re supposed to be all concerned now about the Saints because of that Jets loss, but I’m not there yet. Just like with every other NFL season, fecal matter happens. The Saints are coming back home and the Cowboys, by the way, nearly lost to Minnesota. And for them, that wasn’t nearly as much of a surprise. You see where I’m going with this? I’m 80% certain New Orleans have this one and, for all the time I’ve told you in this article to save your money, I’m going to opposite way here. I think this 7-point line is a joke. If the Saints beat New York last week, the line is easily double and that’s where it should be.
Pigskin Pig – The Cowboys can score some points this year, and they can make some noise in the fourth quarter, but I’m choosing to ignore what happened in the Jets game and I’ll still consider New Orleans one of the best in the league. I’ll go with the Saints to win, at 60% confidence, but I wouldn’t give up 7 points to take the Saints. The points line being at 53.5, I’d go with the OVER, because I’m certain the Cowboys can score at least 20, and the Saints shouldn’t have much issue eclipsing 30..
The Follow Up
A few weeks ago, I wouldn’t have cared at all about the Monday Night game for Week 10, but now that all of this is going on with the Miami Dolphins and Richie Incognito… I’m still not sure I care about Dolphins vs Buccaneers. It should be a lot closer than it would’ve been if Incognito was playing, but I’m not convinced it’ll be exciting.
If you’re enjoying these articles and have an opinion on how we should run things, especially given this new format, you should follow Bryan on Twitter (@bclienesch) and me (@PigskinPig) on Twitter and let us know.
