A perspective from just one person isn’t typically as entertaining or insightful as it is when others are added to the discussion. With the final four teams vying for spots in this year’s Super Bowl today, I got GuysNation columnist Bryan Lienesch to go back and forth about the important topics of the day.
Rob: Which of the two NFL games this weekend are you most looking forward to?
Bryan: Minnesota-Philadelphia without a doubt. I expect New England to handle Jacksonville just fine.
R: See, I’m up in the air on which game is going to be more competitive. I feel like Jacksonville is going to give New England a better fight than most are predicting. That game against Pittsburgh didn’t convince you?
B: Pittsburgh came out flat and ill-prepared. What made things worse for the Steelers after the initial 14-0 hole they got in was Roethlisberger trying to do too much and turning the ball over. The Patriots will not have seven turnovers Sunday. And keep in mind, this is supposed to be a team mired in drama. If that was a team with a broken locker room that dismantled Tennessee, I’m terrified to see them when their unified.
R: I’m expecting that Tom Brady won’t have any issues with his hand, so the main thing to consider is whether or not Blake Bortles is going to be a help or a hindrance. He was right around that 60% completion percentage against Pittsburgh and threw for 200+ with no interceptions. I know Belichick is a great defensive-minded coach, but is he going to focus on stopping the Jaguars running game, or work to shut down Bortles?
B: Why can’t he do both? Look, the Jaguars success against the Steelers is a bit inexplicable. Yes, they were without Shazier, but both times the Steelers played the Jaguars this year, Jacksonville just sort of appeared to be their kryptonite. I think what you’ll see Sunday is an effort from New England to take away the run first, and dare Bortles to throw the ball, and that’s when Jacksonville will get in trouble.
R: Oh, I’m not doubting that Bortles might vomit all over himself if they have to rely on him to try to win the game, and I think the Patriots focusing on stopping the run is probably their best bet for victory. So clearly we both side with conventional wisdom, that the Patriots are the favorite… who do you like in the Minnesota / Philly game?
B: Minnesota for sure. Yes, Nick Foles provided destitute Eagles fans some hope by beating the Falcons, but spoiler alert: the Falcons defense is garbage. Carson Wentz could’ve moved the ball against Atlanta with his one good leg. That’s not going to be the case against Minnesota. They’re pass rush is potent and they can turn you over. And that’s what got Nick Foles in trouble back when the Eagles actually thought he might be the answer. Meanwhile, the VIkings offense has played well enough all season long that I don’t see a reason they couldn’t put up points on this Eagles defense.
R: The Eagles haven’t beaten anyone good since Carson Wentz went down, and I absolutely agree that the Vikings defense is going to provide a much bigger challenge for Philly and Foles than they’ve seen in over a month. I think we’re going to see Minnesota get back to the Super Bowl.
B: I agree. The only thing we need to watch is Tom Brady. If he has to get taken out of this game, I’m not sure how effective Brian Hoyer can be against this Jaguars defense.
R: Probably a bit more effective than Nathan Peterman was during the Wild Card round, but unless he sees a lot of snaps this week in practice, he won’t have enough “Coach ‘im up!” from Belichick to effectively navigate those cornerbacks!
B: Hey don’t knock Peterman. He did about as well as could be expected at the end of the Wild Card game. Especially given how his first half of football went.
R: Yeah, it’s not like anyone was doing a great job of leading an offense in that 10-3 game. It’s actually why I was so surprised when Jacksonville scored 40+ on the Steelers.
R: Eagles fans might be doing a “What If” with the Carson Wentz injury… Suppose he wasn’t injured, but also suppose that Dalvin Cook never got injured for the Vikings. With both of them added to the game, do you still see The Vikings advancing?
B: No because the Vikings have gotten quality run production out of McKinnon and Murray. I don’t see youll see Carson Wentz-level production out of Foles Sunday, making Wentz the X Factor in the equation.
R: I don’t know about “quality run production”. Against the Saints, whose defense was actually pretty good, McKinnon and Murray only combined for 84 yards rushing on 27 carries… but your point is well taken. Even if Cook provided a massive upgrade at the position, the difference he makes in their offense isn’t as massive as what Wentz does as an upgrade over Foles. I still think it’s crazy how Sam Bradford impacted the QB situation for the NFC Championship game.
B: Murray and McKinnon have combined for 1400 yds and 11 rush TD’s this season. If call that considerable production no matter what happened last game. And I think the more interesting storyline is Case Keenum. The story all along has been this is eventually Bridgewater’ s team. But if Keenum gets them to the Super Bowl? I don’t know if they can jist simply hand over the reigns.
R: The Sam Bradford Effect is more just a trivia item for me… Foles getting traded to the Rams for Bradford, then Bradford getting traded because Bridgewater got hurt and the Vikings wanted a decent starter. Foles comes back to the Eagles to be a backup. Keenum got the start in Minnesota because Bradford was injured. I would be surprised if Teddy Bridgewater doesn’t end up somewhere else during Free Agency this off-season. His fifth-year option wasn’t picked up by the Vikings, they have tons of reason to love what Keenum brings, and Sam Bradford played really well for them before he got hurt.
Teddy Bridgewater: Difference Maker
R: Which QB do you predict will have the BEST performance this weekend in a conference championship game?
B: You have to go Brady assuming he stays healthy. The question is how big an assumption that is. Otherwise, probably Keenum.
R: Brady’s probably the safest bet, even with his hand. I’ll go Keenum, all things considered. Which RB (not PAIR of RBs, but RB) do you predict will have the BEST performance?
B: I’ll go with Latavius Murray. I actually think Dion Lewis and the Patriots rush attack are going to have a big day as Belichick will want to probe that Jaguars front seven and try to limit what Brady has to do, but Rex Burkhead will see the bulk of the carries in the Red Zone. Murray, not McKinnon, has emerged as the bigger rushing threat in Minnesota and as Diggs and Thielen stretch the defense down the field with their big play abilities, I think McKinnon will have ample opportunities to run the ball. And if I had to bet, I’d put money on him being Conference Championship Weekend’s rushing leader.
R: Maybe it’s because you didn’t mention him, or maybe it’s because he’s the key to the Jaguars winning, but I think Leonard Fournette will have the best game out of any RB. It’s probably just because I’d love to see Jacksonville in the Super Bowl, and he’s the best chance they have of getting past the Patriots this year.
R: I’ve gotta keep it going, using the standard point-per-catch and point-per-ten-yards scoring, will any of the WR or TE surpass what Gronkowski does against Jacksonville?
B: I don’t know if you’ve been watching, but Gronkowski hasn’t been the same weapon he’s always been. I’d give plenty of receivers a good chance at matching his production especially with the concerns over Brady. I could see Thielen or Diggs from the Vikings outproducing him for sure.
R: Yeah, yeah, Amendola had more yardage than him last week, but look back just one month ago… 9 catches for 168 yards against the Steelers. Before that, it was 9 catches for 147 against the Bills. He’s a threat in terms of yardage, and even when he doesn’t eclipse 100 yards receiving, he might just pull in two touchdowns. I’d be surprised if Thielen surpassed him, given that he’s not at 100%, but Diggs might be a good call. I don’t see anyone on Philly out-producing Gronk, and it’s tough to tell whether Blake Bortles is going to throw for more yards than Gronk has receiving. I just think the Tom Brady hand injury plays into why it’s a good prop bet.
R: If you had the power to select which team advances from only ONE of these two games, which team is it going to be? For me, I’m having trouble deciding whether I would want to have the Jaguars advance to make the Super Bowl winner someone we’ve never seen win it before… or if my disdain for the Eagles would want to ensure they STILL don’t get a ring.
B: I dont want to see the Jaguars in the Super Bowl. To me, they got fat off an easy schedule and then had beat one tough team in the postseason. And my natural hate for the Patriots and any Philadelphia sports franchise precludes those two. So, I guess as a matter of elimination, Minnesota.
R: All the talk of changing the culture in Jacksonville, the players they’ve drafted, the defense they’ve assembled, all the London home games they’ve endured, and the fact that Belichick recommended their head coach makes me want to see them be contenders, but the fact that the Patriots triumvirate is looking like it might just be Kraft in a season or two, I don’t care if New England gets there one more time. Their annoying fans aren’t nearly as terrible as the annoying Eagles fans, so I’d also go with Minnesota. And since we both went with Minnesota, that almost ensures the Eagles get to the Super Bowl.
