So having given you an idea of who might be mid to late round sleepers that could help you win your fantasy baseball league this season, I figured I’d do the opposite now. Just as there as players who could have breakout seasons, there is that other group that can drag your roster down and put a dent in several statistical categories. There are also those you should be wary of due to big seasons that came out of nowhere that will be difficult to replicate. So here are the top players to avoid for this upcoming season:
Adam Dunn, 1B/DH, Chicago (AL)
Dunn used to be a guy whose low average you could live with as long as he kept mashing balls over the fence. Last season he lost that appeal with an average below .200 and just 11 longballs. The previous two years he had 38 HRs in each, but at this point there’s too much risk involved in relying on Dunn for consistent fantasy production.
Bryce Harper, OF, Washington
But Bryce is a mega prospect I hear you say! So what? That never translates into given fantasy production. Harper has yet to play one inning of major league ball, yet is going way too early in some mock drafts. He had an average in the .250s last year in AA and is yet to earn his roster spot. He’s strictly an OF in fantasy terms, and we all know how deep that position is, so needless to say there are better options out there.
Joe Mauer, C, Minnesota
The Golden Boy had a season to forget last year as he struggled mightily. His average was below the norm for him, but would still be considered solid for anyone else. His power was almost non existent so who knows how he’ll respond. He should still post a .300+ average and be a solid fantasy catcher, just don;t overvalue him too much and look at other options that will be more productive.
Justin Morneau, 1B, Minnesota
The other half of the M&M combo also had a season to forget. His numbers have been declining the past 2 years and it doesn’t look like he’ll regain his MVP form this year. He was out with injuries for several stretches last season, so with a position as deep as first base, it wouldn’t make sense to reach for Morneau.
Jonathan Sanchez, SP, Kansas City
Sanchez is one of the more inconsistent pitchers in fantasy. He flashes high strikeout ability at times, but can also struggle with keeping runners from scoring. His ERA and WHIP are high as a result, he doesn’t get very many wins and that’s pitching in AT&T Park half the time. Now that he’s in Kansas City and the AL, his numbers should only get worse.
Ryan Vogelsong, SP, San Francisco
What a career rebirth Vogelsong had last season. Coming out of nowhere he posted solid numbers across the board. Even so, it’s highly unlikely he’ll be able to replicate those numbers this year. He plays in a pitcher-friendly park so that helps his numbers, and his home/road splits tell the tale. He could still contribute some, but on the whole Vogelsong will be a big letdown for owners expecting a repeat.
Joe Nathan, RP, Texas
Nathan’s attempt to come back from Tommy John surgery did not go as well as planned. Now he’s moved on to Texas and the future doesn’t look good. He’ll be pitching in a hitter-friendly ball park and with the new talent in the AL West, a return to pre-surgery form just does not look very likely.
Adam Wainwright, SP, St Louis
Pitchers who return from Tommy John surgery are never really back to their old form. Just ask Joe Nathan. Wainwright had a monster 2010, and those expecting a return to that production will be sorely disappointed. Pujols is gone, so he might not get the same level of support. While he might be worth a late round pick, don’t treat him like the ace he was before the surgery.
Dunn, totally agree. Harper I agree, unless you’re in some sort of keeper league. Then proceed, but realize you probably will have him eating a roster spot until June. Minnesota duo might be worthwhile if they slip way down the board maybe take a flyer, especially Mauer. Catcher is a thin position in fantasy. Sanchez is a good source of K’s, but he’ll get less wins in KC, and like you said is wildly inconsistent. Emphasis on WILD. If he keeps his walks down he’d be a solid #2 or 3 on most staffs. I actually think Nathan bounces back, because I agree. After Tommy John you’re not right. Takes about a year. So I think Nathan can regain his form. Which also means, Wainright will probably struggle this year.