Each time UFC has an event, I do predictions for the entire card on GuysNation. I’m certainly not perfect with picking winners and losers, and sometimes a coin-flipping primate could do better than what I come up with, but I enjoy the process and I’ve been told that some of the analysis I give can be informative and entertaining.
I welcome readers to join in and share their perspective. As with any of the other articles on GuysNation, you can leave a comment in response to the article, and I’ve setup some polls to vote in as well.
Okay, here goes nothing…
Preliminary card
I don’t give a ton of analysis for preliminary fights, as those guys are typically lesser known and I’m just a hack analyst.
* Middleweight bout:
United States – Rich Attonito vs. United States – Dave Branch
Attonito won by decision to qualify for The Ultimate Fighter 11 and broke his hand in his first fight in the house, winning because his opponent threw illegal knees. Neither of those fights showed anything definitive, but he has won two since then. I do like the fact that he has a nice mix of knockout and submission victories (some of which were first-rounders), albeit most of those fights weren’t in the UFC. Dave Branch has a Black Belt in Jiu-Jitsu from Renzo Gracie, and aside from his two UFC appearances, none of his fights went to the third round. I’ll discount the loss to Gerald Harris because it’s Gerald Harris. I’ll predict that coaching has a lot to say about this one.
Prediction: Dave Branch
* Featherweight bout:
Brazil – Fredson Paixão vs. United States – Pablo Garza
Pablo Garza got choked out in the first round of his WEC debut. Fredson Paixão has won two in a row.
Prediction: Fredson Paixão
* Catchweight (138 lb) bout:
Mexico – Will Campuzano vs United States – Nick Pace
Campuzano was out of WEC for losing 2 of 3, only to be brought in following a split decision victory in a fight for a company I’ve never heard of. Pace lost his WEC debut, but it was by decision so I can’t fault him too much for that.
Prediction: Nick Pace
* Lightweight bout:
Armenia – Sako Chivitchian vs. United States – Kyle Watson
I love to pick Armenian fighters to win, but not this time. Chivitchian made some desperate moves in his last fight in the cage on The Ultimate Fighter, whereas Watson seems like a seasoned veteran.
Prediction: Kyle Watson
* Featherweight bout:
United States – Tyler Toner vs. United States – Ian Loveland
Toner has a good record, but I find it odd that Strikeforce didn’t sign him after a victory in his debut there (instead going to some company I’ve never heard of for 2009). Loveland has six straight victories after a rough start to his career.
Prediction: Ian Loveland
* Lightweight bout:
United States – Cody McKenzie vs. England – Aaron Wilkinson
Wilkinson showed some great stuff on The Ultimate Fighter despite two losses in the tournament (being brought back for the Wild Card spot). McKenzie also showed talent in the show, and he has more experience and doesn’t get rattled when the lights are bright.
Prediction: Cody McKenzie
Main card
* Featherweight bout:
United States – Nam Phan vs. United States – Leonard Garcia
Garcia’s last 5 fights went to decision (victories in each of them). Nam Phan lost a split decision in the semi-finals of the recent Ultimate Fighter, but looked good in his other fights in that tournament, despite being able to put away Spencer Paige in his preliminary fight despite the fact that Pagie thought a Kimura Lock applied by Phan in the first round broke his arm. Dropping a weight class, Phan gets the opportunity to have more strength advantage.
Prediction: Nam Phan
* Welterweight bout:
United States – Johny Hendricks vs. United States – Rick Story
Hendricks is undefeated, with 4 wins coming in UFC. Story is on a four-fight streak in UFC, but that is following a loss, and the streak includes a split decision win.
Prediction: Johny Hendricks
* Middleweight bout:
Brazil – Demian Maia vs. United States – Kendall Grove
Maia only loses to the top names in the division, and that doesn’t include Kendall Grove
Prediction: Demian Maia
* Light Heavyweight bout:
United States – Stephan Bonnar vs. Croatia – Igor Pokrajac
Bonnar has lost 3 of 4 and 5 of his past 8. Pokrajac had a rough debut in UFC but got back on track. I’m probably influenced by the fact that I never bought into Bonnar.
Prediction: Igor Pokrajac
* Lightweight bout – Ultimate Fighter Finale:
United States – Jonathan Brookins vs. United States – Michael Johnson
Johnson might be in the finals, but two of the fights in the Ultimate Fighter tournament were questionable – with some saying that Wilkinson should’ve been given the victory over Johnson after his performance in the first two rounds, and then some questioning the outcome of the semi-final fight against Nam Phan, thinking that Johnson didn’t win that fight. I don’t have any such criticisms of Jonathan Brookins, and I think he has a good all-around arsenal of weapons inside the octagon.
Prediction: Jonathan Brookins
