After 41 days of without the UFC, the promotion returns in Toronto, Canada, on Saturday night for UFC 152. Jon Jones defends his light heavyweight title against challenger Vitor Belfort. It is an unlikely matchup as Belfort hasn’t fought at light heavyweight since 2007. However, Befort has faced a whose-who of UFC fighters in his storied career including: Anderson Silva, Dan Henderson Alistair Overeem, Tito Ortiz and Randy Couture. Here is a breakdown of Saturday’s main event.

How Jon Jones Wins at UFC 152:

With an 84.5” reach, it’s not hard to figure out why so many fighters have had a hard time with Jones. The guy is a freak of nature, and for the most part has not been touched in his UFC career. Jones has outstruck every single opponent in the UFC, including outstriking Rashad Evans 105- 45 in his last fight. Jones lands about 50% of his strikes but the champion also has an outstanding 68% striking defense, meaning he successfully defends around 7/10 strikes from his opponents.

Jones must do to Belfort what he has done to his other challengers, bully him. Jones controls the Octagon had using his long reach, keeping his opponents at bay. The UFC champion has never been taken down in his MMA career and also must use the clinch against Belfort. Jones has outstanding elbows and knees and when Jones gets his opponent up against the cage in the clinch, he is in a lot of trouble.

How Vitor Belfort Wins at UFC 152:

Belfort has to go in there with nothing to lose, because he doesn’t. Belfort is a true “Rocky” story, as he came out of nowhere to challenge for the UFC title. The biggest challenge for Belfort is closing the gap and trying to tag the champion. Jones will have a 10” reach advantage and few opponents have been able to get inside on Jones and hit him. It is very important that Belfort comes out strong, as he has not been out of the first round since 2008 and stamina could be a question for the 35-year-old.

The biggest advantage Belfort has is his finishing ability. When Belfort has opponents hurt, he finishes them usually with a flurry of punches. In his last fight, Belfort rocked Anthony Johnson and finished him on the ground with a rear-naked choke. Belfort may not get a lot of chances, but when he hits Jones he needs to land combinations and if he hurt Jones, he must go in for the kill.

How it Will Go Down at UFC 152:

The two men will likely feel each other out in the first few minutes of the match. Both men will respect the power and speed of the other. I expect Belfort to come out more aggressive in the first round, as the longer the fight goes the more it favors the champion. Jones will counter Belfort and expect him to use his diverse striking abilities. Jones will try to get Belfort in the clinch and hurt him with short elbows and knees to the body and head. Belfort will prove to be a challenge for Jones and he will be a game opponent and try to take it to the champion. However, the champion will be too strong and Jones will finish the fight before the third round.