As you’re all likely aware by now (or not), I do my best to make predictions on each and every major UFC event. The past few times I’ve actually done really well at predicting what the outcomes would be, and although I don’t want to suggest anyone use these predictions in Vegas, it might not be a bad idea. I won’t be held responsible for any lost money, but listed below are my predictions and reasoning behind my picks.
Enjoy!
Preliminary card
* Welterweight bout:
United States – Mike Pierce vs. Brazil – Amilcar Alves
Always hard to predict someone’s UFC debut, especially for Brazilian fighters who have never fought outside of South America (even if he is 11-1). I like two of the past three outcomes for Mike Pierce, so that’s where I’m going (though I wouldn’t be surprised to see Alves win by submission).
Prediction: Mike Pierce
* Welterweight bout:
England – Nick Osipczak vs. United – States Greg Soto
Osipczak has won two of his last three, but so has Greg Soto – and Soto’s loss was due to an illegal kick. Osipczak has more UFC experience, so I’ll go with him.
Prediction: Nick Osipczak
* Middleweight bout:
United States – Dan Miller vs. United States – John Salter
The fact that Dan Miller has three straight losses and is still in UFC should tell you something. Losing to Chael Sonnen, Michael Bisping and Demian Maia – all by decision – is not an accomplishment, but it’s not something to completely detract from Miller. Salter likes to finish his fights, and while I think Miller will be super motivated, I don’t think he’s going to be able to remain in UFC after this fight.
Prediction: John Salter
Preliminary card (Spike TV)
* Lightweight bout:
England – Andre Winner vs. United States – Nik Lentz
Winner has looked good in his past two fights since losing his UFC debut, but it’s hard for me to predict against Nik Lentz and his huge winning streak.
Prediction: Nik Lentz
* Lightweight bout:
United States – Joe Lauzon vs. United States – Gabe Ruediger
Joe Lauzon has plenty of well-deserved superlative fights on his resume, and Gabe Ruediger hasn’t had a fight in UFC since 2006 (a loss to Melvin Guillard). Ruediger does have a string of submission victories which he followed up with a knockout win, but I’m choosing against him and disregarding the fact that Lauzon has lost two of his last four.
Prediction: Joe Lauzon
Main card
* Welterweight bout:
United States – Nate Diaz vs. United States – Marcus Davis
I have enjoyed several of the fights I’ve seen from “Irish Hand Grenade” Marcus Davis, but it seems that when he faces elite talent, Davis comes up short. Nate Diaz is as close to being an “elite talent” as Davis has ever faced. Though Nate Diaz has only won 4 of his past 7, he was awarded Submission Of The Night honors in two of those wins, Fight Of The Night honors in another win, and Fight Of The Night honors in two of the three losses. The other loss during that span was a split decision against a top contender in the Lightweight division. Marcus Davis could make a huge statement in this match, but I don’ t think he’ll be able to do quite enough.
Prediction: Nate Diaz
* Lightweight bout:
United States – Kenny Florian vs. United States – Gray Maynard
The winner of this fight is likely to get a shot at the Lightweight championship against the winner of UFC 118’s main event, so there’s plenty of motivation for both fighters. Anyone who has heard of Kenny Florian knows that KenFlo is one of the smartest guys in the business and one of the most technically sound. When he fought B.J. Penn for the Lightweight Championship, I really thought KenFlo was going to win. He didn’t. Does he have motivation to get back to the top? Absolutely, but probably not as much as Gray Maynard. Despite holding a victory over the current Lightweight Champion, Frankie Edgar, there has yet to be a title shot for Gray Maynard. Detractors of Maynard would likely point to the fact that Gray hasn’t finished a fight since 2007, earning his past 6 victories by decision. Maynard is undefeated, but KenFlo knows how to finish fights (only one of his fights since 2007 going to decision… which he won. This is a tough one to predict, but I hate decision outcomes.
Prediction: Kenny Florian
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* Middleweight bout:
Brazil – Demian Maia vs. Brazil – Mario Miranda
Somehow this is the first time I’m hearing about Mario Miranda, but I’m decently impressed. He has only had two fights in UFC and he’s already on the main PPV card against a top talent in his division. The only loss on his resume doesn’t matter to me, as Gerald Harris is a beast. He must have done something significant at UFC 115 in his last fight to deserve the spot on this card. That said, Demian Maia lost to Anderson Silva by decision in his last fight, and a year ago he got knocked out in the first thirty seconds in what I’d consider a fluke. Miranda isn’t elite like Silva and he’s not a knockout artist, so I’m predicting that Maia and Miranda have quite the BJJ exhibition.
Prediction: Demian Maia
* Heavyweight Main Event bout:
United States – Randy Couture vs. United States – James Toney
I’m really really looking forward to this fight. MMA fans and boxing fans love to have the argument about which combat sport is the better option, and this is a step in the right direction. While we still need to see an MMA competitor like Anderson Silva or Chuck Liddel take their try in a boxing match, this fight provides a great opportunity. Randy Couture admittedly doesn’t have world-class boxing skills, but he’s a great wrestler and is a legend inside the octagon.
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If James Toney can keep this fight more of a boxing match, he’d likely get the win, but for some reason I tend to think that Randy Couture is going to take him out of his element early and often and Toney isn’t going to know what to do. In a boxing match, clinches get broken up by the referee. In MMA, a clinch is a dangerous place to be against a guy like Randy Couture, which makes my prediction easy.
Prediction: Randy Couture
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* Lightweight Championship Main Event bout:
United States – Frankie Edgar (c) vs. United States – B.J. Penn
Frankie Edgar shocked the world when he beat B.J. Penn for the Lightweight Championship, and many have stated that they thought Penn had underestimated Edgar before their first fight. The more and more I look at the situation, the more I have to agree. Frankie Edgar only has one loss on his record, but most of his fights in UFC have ended by decision. B.J. Penn has plenty of losses on his resume, but there’s nothing wrong with losing to Matt Hughes, Georges St Pierre and Lyoto Machida. In hearing recent interviews with B.J. Penn (most notably on the Lavar Arrington Show With Chad Dukes in D.C. on 1067 The Fan FM) I strongly believe that Penn is going to get his belt back, and it won’t go to decision. If it ends by decision or Edgar retains the belt in any way, my opinion on both of those guys will drastically change.
Prediction: B.J. Penn
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If this article gets more than 8 individuals leaving comments on it, someone will get a free shirt. If more than 17 individuals leave comments on it, two people will get free shirts, one of them will get to help design theirs!
LET’S GOO EDGAAARRR!!!
Are you from Jersey, just have a general dislike for B.J. Penn, like the under-dog story, appreciate Frankie’s skills, or do you want him to win for a different reason?
Just curious. You’re totally within your right to want whichever fighter to win.
Watch BJ in his corner right before the first round and you will be transported back to the beginning of round 5, of Penn vs Sanchez. This is what is going to win this fight for BJ.
I’m pulling for Kenny. He has looked like a destroyer against everyone except BJ, (and Sherk). What he did to Guida would have earned him a perfection medal in Halo. I see him doing the same thing to Gray, who by the end of the 2nd, or beginning of the 3rd, is going to get frustrated and get caught with something big. Kenny with the finish.
And I canNOT Wait to see James Toney babble incoherently into Rogan’s mike after he wakes up. I bet he’ll swiftly forget the beating he just endured and wonder why no one can understand a word coming out of his mouth.
Love the comment about James Toney. You think he’d get knocked out or will he get caught in a submission he’s not ready for?
People have trouble understanding Toney as it is!
I’m actually quite impressed with the picks, not sure about Nate Diaz but that may be just because i think he’s trash. As much as i hate to say it i’m also not too sure about the James Toney match. I’d love to say that the MMA fighter wins hands down but Couture is getting REALLY old by now and with what we just saw happen to Chuck Lidell, I could see Toney getting in one good hit and leveling Couture.
Yeah, I’m afraid that something will happen and Toney will catch Couture early and we won’t get to see much of Randy’s strategy come into play. I’m not predicting that would happen, but I’ll be disappointed if it does.
I see no fault with your predictions. Cant wait to see the Couture/Toney fight. Seems very intriguing on paper anyway!
Thanks Dave! I’m very curious to see how my predictions come through tomorrow night. There have been shows where I’m really confident in my picks and they turn out to get flushed down the toilet, so we’ll see…
Yep, BJ will be serious this time and should put him away by round two.
Randy, unless he gets caught shooting, Toney has no chance.
I think a lot of people really agree with what you just mentioned, on both of your points.
You have great selection intuition. I’m impressed! Your decisions aren’t just from the gut they’re very literal, straightforward, and are funny at times. Great picks. We don’t have to agree on each others picks. When they’re straightforward like yours are. Why squabble? If someone is the type of fight selector who have the tendency to lean toward the “But, what if…?” then this list ain’t for them. This is my kind of list.
I’d be very interested to hear your predictions as well. For the sake of broadening my knowledge of fighters, I like to hear what other people have to say about particular guys.
Thanks for reading, I appreciate it!
Do you work for BJPenn.com or are you just a fan?
I’m interested to see Couture-Toney, Edgar-Penn, and KenFlo-Maynard.
Florian’s proven that he deserves to be in the top of the LW division, but you can’t forget about Maynard. He is undefeated (something not many guys in the UFC can claim anymore), but the question is can he finish the fight. Florian can, it’s been proven time and time again. If Maynard’s banking on a decision, I’m giving it to KenFlo.
Couture-Toney… everything about this match has been said. However, I’m not sure if this is an accurate representation of MMA vs. Boxing. When I look at this match, all I see is a boxer entering the MMA world. What would happen if someone like BJ Penn or Chris Leben were to go into boxing, going up against Mayweather or Paquiao? This match may settle some debates, but until we see an MMA fighter in a boxing ring, we won’t really know for sure.
Couture has wrestling on his side, Toney merely knows how to punch (albeit, very well). If Couture can ground Toney and use some ground and pound, it’ll be a quick match.If Couture utilizes the clinch like he did against Vera, Couture has this. But if Couture decides to stand and bang with Toney, I’m not sure on the winner.
Edgar-Penn is going to be an amazing match, simply because I want to see BJ Penn fight to reclaim the title. The evolution of Penn, from “The Prodigy”, where he’s so good he doesn’t need to train, to “I’m so good I don’t need to train, but I’m going to train to get even better” has been amazing. Edgar may have caught Penn the last time, but the question going into Saturday is if it was a fluke, or if Edgar really does have Penn’s number.
I’m saying it was a fluke. Penn normally is a dangerous opponent. But fighting for his belt? That just makes him step his game up even further. And knowing that it’s the same guy that upset him almost makes this unfair. We’re gonna see St. Pierre-Serra 2 here, and as much as I love Matt Serra, I was happy when GSP won his belt back. And unless Edgar can do something, Penn’s walking out with his belt back around his waist.
I fully agree that the MMA vs Boxing argument is only PARTIALLY satisfied with Couture v Toney. I’d be real careful about picking Mayweather or Paquiao, though. There’s a reason why we’re not seeing Toney go up against Lesnar, Carwin, Velasquez or Mir.
Great picks! I think Miai, Florian, and Penn ALL have a good chance at getting “Submission of the Night,” although wouldn’t it be great if Couture tapped out Toney and put HIM to sleep with a choke?! THAT would be awesome! Toney has a puncher’s chance….. but this isn’t Randy’s first rodeo, and unlike Liddell I don’t think we’ll see the kind of footwork from Toney that will shut down Randy and expose him to strikes.
Florian is definitely on track to his 3rd title shot with this one, while Penn is going to prove once and for all WHY he is THE best lightweight MMA fighter in the world.
I tend to probably agree with you about KenFlo, but something in me really thinks that Maynard might have a good shot.
Alright, well at least one person is getting a shirt now. Let’s see if another person will get one as we get more comments!
I’ll contact the first person sometime this weekend!
I lost a little bit of respect for Penn after his second fight with GSP, but still think he is one of the all-time greats and he should defeat Edgar and recapture his belt. The question is who can challenge him next if he does? Don’t see Florian or Maynard as serious threats to him, but with B.J. you never know.
Hey man, got your message on Bleacher Report. Solid article! I agree with most of these picks.