I’ve done pretty well thus far predicting UFC events, and even if I hadn’t, I’d probably still be attempting to pick winners.

Unlike the MMA Betting Blog I’ve seen, I’m not going to try to predict which round / what method.

Main Card:

Main Event
Randy Couture vs Mark Coleman
Typically I compare records, but with two Hall of Famers, records don’t really matter.  It just so happens that they have very similar records (17-10 for Couture, 16-9 for Coleman).
Couture lost recently to Brock Lesnar, then Nogueira, and then won via controversial decision against Brandon Vera.
Coleman hasn’t fought in 7 months, had to go to decision against Stephan Bonner in that fight, and prior to fighting Bonner, Coleman lost to Shogun Rua by knockout in his debut at 205 lbs, with a submission loss to arguably the best Heavyweight fighter in the world – Fedor Emelianenko – 50 months prior in a fight which looked as if it could’ve been a potential retirement spot.
They’ve both recently made the switch to 205 and have questionable outcomes in their past three fights.
I have to give the edge to Couture for this one.  Both guys are high profile, but Couture is considered one of the best in the history of this sport for a reason, and I think he’s going to rebound well from the Vera fight.
Prediction: Randy Couture

Middleweight bout:
Nate Marquardt vs. Chael Sonnen
Since his loss in 2007 to Anderson Silva, I’ll consider Nate Marquardt to be virtually undefeated.  I’m discrediting his loss to Thales Leites by split decision because of the points that were docked from Nate due to various infractions in two of the three rounds.  His past two wins over Demian Maia and Wilson Gouveia are impressive on his resume.
All four of Chael Sonnen’s wins dating back to the beginning of 2008 have been by decision, not a good resume when fighting a guy who can knock people out in the first 90 seconds of a fight.
This one’s easy for me to pick.
Prediction: Nate Marquardt

Welterweight bout:
Mike Swick vs. [Brazil] Paulo Thiago
Since moving to Welterweight, “Quick” Mike Swick won four straight before losing in a #1 Contenders fight to Dan Hardy.
Paulo Thiago did well back in Brazil, amassing a record of 10-0 before joining UFC.  Since then he’s 2-1, knocking out Josh Koscheck in the first round in his UFC debut and then losing a decision and then winning a decision (both unanimous).
I’m sure to be wrong about this one, but I’m not overly impressed with Paulo Thiago’s record, but I’ll be watching this one closely.
Prediction: Mike Swick

Middleweight bout:
[Brazil] Demian Maia vs. Dan Miller
Demian Maia is 5-1 since joining UFC, with 5 submission victories and one loss by knockout in the first 30 seconds of the fight (to Nate Marquardt).
Dan Miller is 3-1 since joining UFC, getting 2 submissions, needing one decision, and losing his most recent fight by decision (to Chael Sonnen).
Given that Demian Maia has a victory over the one person to defeat Dan Miller, I’ll have to use that factor to make my decision.
Prediction: Demian Maia

Welterweight bout:
Matt Serra vs. Frank Trigg
I’m not as interested in this fight as I probably should be, given these are two veterans.
Matt Serra’s past two fights aren’t too impressive – both losses, albeit to two of the best EVER in his weight division (Matt Hughes and Georges St Pierre).
Frank Trigg’s resume doesn’t look any more impressive.  Yeah, he’s got 3 wins over the past 18 months, but I’ve only heard of one of the organizations which hosted those fights (Strikeforce).  He lost to Josh Koscheck in his last match, which was his return to UFC for the first time since 2005 (his previous run in UFC ended, ironically, with losses to GSP and Hughes).
I’ll have to go with Matt Serra this time, though I almost flipped a coin.
Prediction: Matt Serra

Preliminary Card (Spike TV)

Lightweight bout:
Mac Danzig vs. Justin Buchholz
Danzig has lost three in a row, though 2 were via unanimous decision.
Buchholz has lost three of his past 4, twice being submitted.
I’m betting that one of these guys is out of UFC within a week after this fight.
Prediction: Mac Danzig

Lightweight bout:
Melvin Guillard vs. [Brazil] Ronnys Torres
Guillard has won three of his past four, and I can’t fault him for losing to Nate Diaz by decision.
Torres hasn’t lost in 50+ months, but all of those fights were back in Brazil.
Guillard seems to be on a downward spiral, so that’s the only reason I’ll predict that Ronnys wins in his UFC debut.
Prediction: Ronnys Torres

Preliminary Card

Lightweight bout:
Phillipe Nover vs. Rob Emerson
Nover lost in the finals of The Ultimate Fighter, and then followed it up with a loss to Kyle Bradley, so he’s likely facing the end of his UFC career if he can’t get a win here.
Emerson is 2-2 in his past two fights, which isn’t promising given his 8-8 overall record.
I liked what I saw from Nover during TUF, so I’ll use that as my determination, but neither guy seems to have a long future in UFC.
Prediction: Phillipe Nover

Light Heavyweight bout:
Brian Stann vs. Phil Davis
Davis makes his UFC debut with a record of 4-0.
Brian Stann has only won 2 of his last four, but I enjoyed those fights, so that’s what I’ll pick based on.
Prediction: Brian Stann

Heavyweight bout:
[Canada] Tim Hague vs. Chris Tuchscherer
I liked Tim Hague’s chances back in late August, but he got knocked out with the opening punch.  I’ll look past that.
Tuchscherer amassed an impressive record, but he’s 0-1 in UFC, losing his debut to Gabriel Gonzaga.
I’ll predict that with a reach advantage, Hague’s not going to get knocked out this time, and Tuchscherer is going to be 0-2.
Prediction: Tim Hague

Heavyweight bout:
[Brazil] Rolles Gracie vs. Joey Beltran
I like Beltran’s nickname “The Mexicutioner”, but I can’t bet against a Gracie (who happens to be 3-0 professionally with three first-round submission victories).
Prediction: Rolles Gracie