The finale for season 10 of The Ultimate Fighter is a mere appetizer compared to this beefy card.  I guess that’s why TUF 10 Finale was on free TV (Spike) and UFC 107 is on PPV.

My predictions of TUF 10 Finale’s fights were abysmal.  I could’ve flipped a coin and done better.  I still enjoy making the predictions, though, and hopefully through doing my predictions I give you some interesting fact nuggets.  If not, so beit.

Also, feel encouraged to give me your thoughts and predictions for what you think will happen.

Preliminary Card

Welterweight bout:
Kevin Burns vs. [Canada] TJ Grant
If this fight ends in the first round, I’d be very surprised, since neither of the two fighters have finished (or been finished) a fight prior to the second round while in UFC.
Burns has two nice accolades (Fight of the Night at The Ultimate Fighter 9 Finale back in June, Submission of the Night at UFC 85 back 18 months ago), and there’s a nice story floating out there about how dedicated he was to martial arts when learning jiu-jitsu.
TJ Grant is a submission-using Canadian whose only loss in the past 20 months was by decision to undefeated Kim Dong-hyun.
I’m hoping we get to see this fight, and based on what I’ve found during my research, I wouldn’t be surprised if this fight gets shown at some point during the pay per view broadcast.  I can’t go against Grant, given my respect level for submissionists from Canada.
Prediction:  TJ Grant

Welterweight bout:
DaMarques Johnson vs. [Mexico] Edgar Garcia
I definitely remember DaMarques from his time on The Ultimate Fighter: US vs UK, and I’d really like to see him fight Michael Bisping.  Johnson’s win-loss record is 13-7, but he did get to the finals in the tournament for season 9 of The Ultimate Fighter.
Edgar Garcia only has one loss on his eight fight record, a split decision on the same show where DaMarques lost in the TUF 9 tournament finale.
I’ll pick what I want to happen, because if DaMarques loses, his chances of staying in UFC long enough to setup a fight with Bisping significantly decreases.
Prediction:  DaMarques Johnson

Middleweight bout:
[Brazil] Rousimar Palhares vs. [Brazil] Lucio Linhares
Rousimar is 9-2, with his only loss in the past three years being a unanimous decision loss to Dan Henderson.
Lucio Linhares is 13-4, but none of them were in UFC (though 7 of them were in M-1).
Prediction:  Rousimar Palhares

Welterweight bout:
Johny Hendricks vs. [Brazil] Ricardo Funch
Both of these fighters are undefeated, but I have to base this off of the fact that Johny Hendricks has UFC experience, knocking out Amir Sadollah at UFC 101.
Prediction: Johny Hendricks

Lightweight bout:
Matt Wiman vs. Shane Nelson
Shane Nelson lost his last fight, a rematch with Aaron Riley, his only loss since 2006.  Matt Wiman has lost his past 2, and 5 of his past 10.
Prediction:  Shane Nelson

Middleweight bout:
Alan Belcher vs. [Brazil] Wilson Gouveia
With similar records (Gouveia is 12-6, Belcher 14-6), this one’s real difficult to predict.  I will say that Belcher’s fight with Akiyama at UFC 100 was a CLOSE decision loss, whereas Gouveia got knocked out in his last fight.
Prediction:  Alan Belcher

Main Card

Heavyweight bout:
Paul Buentello vs. [Netherlands] Stefan Struve
Buentello has come up short in two Heavyweight Championship fights in the past 4 years (against Alistair Overeem in Strikeforce and Andrei Arlovski in UFC), but the fact that he was there says a lot.
Struve is 6’11” and has a record of 18-3, is undefeated in 4 career kickboxing fights, and is deadly with submissions.
Prediction:  Stefan Struve

Lightweight bout:
Kenny Florian vs. Clay Guida
KenFlo only has one loss in the past 2.5 years, his last fight, which was against B.J. Penn.  Going into that fight, I really thought Florian had a chance to take the belt from Penn.
Clay Guida has a record of 4-4 dating back to the start of 2007, with a loss in his last fight, which was against Diego Sanchez, the guy in the main event.
I’d be very surprised if KenFlo lost this fight.
Prediction:  Kenny Florian

Welterweight bout:
Jon Fitch vs. Mike Pierce
John Fitch has one loss in the past 6.5 years – Georges St.Pierre.
Mike Pierce has one UFC fight on his resume, a victory by decision three months ago.
Prediction:  John Fitch

Heavyweight bout:
Frank Mir vs. [France] Cheick Kongo
In a division currently riddled by injury and illness, After losing to Brock Lesnar in their highly anticipated rematch, Frank Mir is going to want to find a way to prove he’s still got what it takes to be on top of this division (he said on MMAJunkie.com radio that his goal is to take off Lesnar’s arm).  A guy what that level of motivation who has big wins against guys like Noguiera (by knockout), Lesnar (first round submission), Hardonk (first round submission), and Tim Sylvia (first round submission) is going to be tough to beat.
The last time Kongo was in the cage, he lost to Cain Velasquez 18 months ago.
Prediction:  Frank Mir

Lightweight Championship bout:
B.J. Penn (c) vs. Diego Sanchez
Penn is the odds-on favorite to win this fight, and with his track record, you can’t blame Vegas for picking him.
Sanchez hasn’t lost a fight since dropping down into the lightweight division.  In fact, both of Diego’s victories since dropping into the division have won Fight of the Night honors – both won by decision.  The fact that Diego has so many victories by decision tells me that he probably won’t be able to finish off B.J. Penn.  Being that Penn has only lost to the best this sport has to offer (Matt Hughes, G.S.P., Lyoto Machida), I don’t see him losing to Diego Sanchez, no matter how good Diego’s win-loss record is (23-2).
Prediction: B.J. Penn