Projecting The NCAA Field – 3/11 UPDATE

BULLISH ON THE BULLDOGS: Even in a down year for Gonzaga basketball, the Bulldogs upset St. Mary’s to steal their conference’s automatic berth. And now the field will have one more tournament-seasoned mid-major likely to wreak havoc in the the tourney. Photo courtesy The Spokesman Review

As we head into the weekend, one essential question remains: does anyone on the bubble want to be in the tournament?

All St. Mary’s had to do was win their conference tournament against Gonzaga to avoid any drama on Selection Sunday. Instead, though, the Gaels, who perennially live in Gonzaga’s shadow, lost to the Bulldogs.

That would normally spell disaster for a team with St. Mary’s resume, but then Vanderbilt was upset by Tennessee in their conference tournament, quite likely eliminating them from the tournament. So St. Mary’s, even hanging by a thread, is safe for now. At least in my projection.

However, now the bubble is so weak that Florida, the eighth seed in the SEC tournament, is likely on the verge of an at-large bid if they can upset Texas A&M today. That’s a big “if”, obviously, but think about this: Florida has 13 losses. Assuming they don’t win the SEC tournament to secure the automatic berth, whenever they lose it would be their 14^th loss. Only six teams in the history of the tournament have secured an at large bid with as many losses. And yet, as long as that next loss comes after upsetting Texas A&M (and even possibly before), this 2015-16 Gators team quite possibly could become just the seventh team to do just that.

The other team with a prime opportunity now is George Washington. It feels like ages ago that the Colonials upset Virginia and looked like a team that could do real damage come March. In the meantime, an up-and-down year more than likely leaves GW currently on the outside looking in. But if they can find a way to crack those top four teams atop the Atlantic 10 – Dayton, VCU, St. Joseph’s, and St. Bonaventure – we may be having a different conversation. And if they manage to scrap their way to the A-10 finals? With as weak as this field is and knowing it would take a couple quality wins to do just that? Yeah, they’re probably in.

The other part to this weak field of bubble teams is it leaves room for some real surprises. And the last thing I want to talk about is Princeton. You won’t find them on anyone’s Bracketology lists outside of New Jersey, but I’m telling you: do not write them off. They’re 22-6, but more importantly, they have an RPI of 41. I won’t get into the nitty gritty of the Ratings Percentage Index here, but just know (if you don’t know) it basically means from a statistical perspective the Tigers are about the 40^th best team in the country. They actually have the best RPI amongst teams that aren’t considered a lock for the tournament. To compare, Florida, my first team out in this projection, has an RPI of 51, or ten worse. Granted, RPI isn’t the only thing the selection committee looks at obviously, but it should count for something. Add in that they have an admirable non-conference division schedule, the Ivy league does not have a conference tournament where the Tigers could make one last push for an automatic bid, and that their only bad loss was a two-point upset at the hands of Harvard seven days ago, I’m telling you to keep this team in mind.

Okay, that’s it for now. Here’s the fully-updated projection.

^ = Projected Conference Champion
# = Automatic Berth Clinched
* = New Team To Bracket Projection
Bold = First Round “First Four” Game

Last Four In: Tulsa, South Carolina, Connecticut, St. Mary’s
First Four Out: Florida, George Washington, Vanderbilt, Valparaiso
Next Four Out: Monmouth, Michigan, Princeton, Syracuse