
THE STAGE IS SET: Enough anticipation and pre-draft analysis, it’s time to get on with it. Photo courtesy Getty Images
The problem with assigning guys a “first round” label is we tend to get carried away with it. As in, yeah, that guy’s good, he’s a first rounder. Well, it doesn’t matter how good a guy is, there are only 32 picks in the first round.
That’s why we should take in other factors. Not only that there are only 32 picks, but who is in demand. Maybe you don’t feel that Geno Smith is a first-round talent, but it’s extremely rare that a quarterback doesn’t go in the first round and he’s clearly the best available. THAT makes him a likely first round selection.
This is why, starting last year, I created what I like to call the NFL Draft First Round Forecast. Using the terminology reserved for injuries on game day, I have signed prospective first-round talents labels ranging from “Active” (all but guaranteed to go in the First Round) to “Doubtful” (very, very unlikely to be selected in the first round). What about “Inactive”, you say? Well, consider the rest of the crop of guys in the draft the inactives.
This is your 2013 NFL Draft First Round Forecast:
Bryan Lienesch’s First Round Draft Forecast |
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Name | Pos. | School | Forecast |
Luke Joeckel | OT | Texas A&M | Active |
Shariff Floyd | DT | Florida | Active |
Dion Jordan | DE | Oregon | Active |
Dee Milliner | CB | Alabama | Active |
Star Lotulelei | DT | Utah | Active |
Eric Fisher | OT | Central Michigan | Active |
Lane Johnson | OT | Oklahoma | Active |
Sheldon Richardson | DT | Missouri | Active |
Jonathan Cooper | OG | North Carolina | Active |
Chance Warmack | OG | Alabama | Active |
Barkevius Mingo | DE | LSU | Active |
Xavier Rhodes | CB | Florida State | Active |
Ziggy Ansah | DE | BYU | Active |
Cordarrelle Patterson | WR | Tennessee | Active |
Jarvis Jones | OLB | Georgia | Probable |
Bjoern Werner | DE | Florida State | Probable |
Kenny Vaccaro | SS | Texas | Probable |
Desmond Trufant | CB | Washington | Probable |
D.J. Fluker | OT | Alabama | Probable |
Geno Smith | QB | West Virginia | Probable |
Damontre Moore | DE | Texas A&M | Probable |
Tavon Austin | WR | West Virginia | Probable |
Alec Ogletree | ILB | Georgia | Probable |
Manti Te’o | ILB | Notre Dame | Probable |
Sylvester Williams | DT | North Carolina | Probable |
Matt Elam | SS | Florida | Probable |
Eric Reid | FS | LSU | Probable |
Jamar Taylor | CB | Boise State | Probable |
Kevin Minter | ILB | LSU | Questionable |
Jesse Williams | DT | Alabama | Questionable |
Tyler Eifert | TE | Notre Dame | Questionable |
John Cyprien | FS | Florida International | Questionable |
Cornellius Carradine | DE | Florida State | Questionable |
Keenan Allen | WR | California | Questionable |
Arthur Brown | ILB | Kansas State | Questionable |
Eddie Lacy | RB | Alabama | Questionable |
DeAndre Hopkins | WR | Clemson | Questionable |
Margus Hunt | DE | Southern Methodist | Questionable |
Datone Jones | DE | UCLA | Questionable |
Menelik Watson | OT | Florida State | Questionable |
Kawann Short | DT | Purdue | Doubtful |
Alex Okafor | DE | Texas | Doubtful |
Justin Hunter | WR | Tennessee | Doubtful |
Zach Ertz | TE | Stanford | Doubtful |
Barrett Jones | OG | Alabama | Doubtful |
Johnthan Banks | CB | Mississippi State | Doubtful |
Robert Woods | WR | USC | Doubtful |
Tyler Wilson | QB | Arkansas | Doubtful |
Johnathan Hankins | DT | Ohio State | Doubtful |
Ryan Nassib | QB | Syracuse | Doubtful |
Markus Wheaton | WR | Oregon State | Doubtful |