THE STAGE IS SET: Enough anticipation and pre-draft analysis, it's time to get on with it. Photo courtesy Getty Images

THE STAGE IS SET: Enough anticipation and pre-draft analysis, it’s time to get on with it. Photo courtesy Getty Images

The problem with assigning guys a “first round” label is we tend to get carried away with it. As in, yeah, that guy’s good, he’s a first rounder. Well, it doesn’t matter how good a guy is, there are only 32 picks in the first round.

That’s why we should take in other factors. Not only that there are only 32 picks, but who is in demand. Maybe you don’t feel that Geno Smith is a first-round talent, but it’s extremely rare that a quarterback doesn’t go in the first round and he’s clearly the best available. THAT makes him a likely first round selection.

This is why, starting last year, I created what I like to call the NFL Draft First Round Forecast. Using the terminology reserved for injuries on game day, I have signed prospective first-round talents labels ranging from “Active” (all but guaranteed to go in the First Round) to “Doubtful” (very, very unlikely to be selected in the first round). What about “Inactive”, you say? Well, consider the rest of the crop of guys in the draft the inactives.

This is your 2013 NFL Draft First Round Forecast:

Bryan Lienesch’s First Round Draft Forecast
Name Pos. School Forecast
Luke Joeckel OT Texas A&M Active
Shariff Floyd DT Florida Active
Dion Jordan DE Oregon Active
Dee Milliner CB Alabama Active
Star Lotulelei DT Utah Active
Eric Fisher OT Central Michigan Active
Lane Johnson OT Oklahoma Active
Sheldon Richardson DT Missouri Active
Jonathan Cooper OG North Carolina Active
Chance Warmack OG Alabama Active
Barkevius Mingo DE  LSU Active
Xavier Rhodes CB Florida State Active
Ziggy Ansah DE BYU Active
Cordarrelle Patterson WR Tennessee Active
Jarvis Jones OLB Georgia Probable
Bjoern Werner DE Florida State Probable
Kenny Vaccaro SS Texas Probable
Desmond Trufant CB Washington Probable
D.J. Fluker OT Alabama Probable
Geno Smith QB West Virginia Probable
Damontre Moore DE Texas A&M Probable
Tavon Austin WR West Virginia Probable
Alec Ogletree ILB Georgia Probable
Manti Te’o ILB Notre Dame Probable
Sylvester Williams DT North Carolina Probable
Matt Elam SS Florida Probable
Eric Reid FS LSU Probable
Jamar Taylor CB Boise State Probable
Kevin Minter ILB LSU Questionable
Jesse Williams DT Alabama Questionable
Tyler Eifert TE Notre Dame Questionable
John Cyprien FS Florida International Questionable
Cornellius Carradine DE Florida State Questionable
Keenan Allen WR California Questionable
Arthur Brown ILB Kansas State Questionable
Eddie Lacy RB Alabama Questionable
DeAndre Hopkins WR Clemson Questionable
Margus Hunt DE Southern Methodist Questionable
Datone Jones DE UCLA Questionable
Menelik Watson OT Florida State Questionable
Kawann Short DT Purdue Doubtful
Alex Okafor DE Texas Doubtful
Justin Hunter WR Tennessee Doubtful
Zach Ertz TE Stanford Doubtful
Barrett Jones OG Alabama Doubtful
Johnthan Banks CB Mississippi State Doubtful
Robert Woods WR USC Doubtful
Tyler Wilson QB Arkansas Doubtful
Johnathan Hankins DT Ohio State Doubtful
Ryan Nassib QB Syracuse Doubtful
Markus Wheaton WR Oregon State Doubtful

Related Posts