Every off-season, at least three or four teams swap out their head coach in hopes that a new leader will be able to implement their plan with a few roster changes and end up in the playoffs (and in the eyes of some of the optimistic general managers / owners, a berth in the Super Bowl is the expected outcome of an under-productive team). The list of head coaches for the 32 teams in the NFL are set (general managers / owners would be stupid to change coaches AFTER the NFL Draft), but here is a list of coaches who have 16 regular season games to make their case to still be in their position 12 months from now.
Tom Cable – Oakland Raiders
I’m sure some of you reading this will be asking yourself “Wasn’t this guy fired already?”
The naming of Tom Cable as one of the coaches on the “hot seat” isn’t much of a stretch, since this is Al Davis we’re talking about. Al Davis does seem to like this guy, even though he punches assistant coaches, but unless the Raiders can put together a decent season this next year, Cable could be out. Judging from the end of last season, they could be a dangerous team. The lackluster Kansas City Chiefs and the re-tooling Denver Broncos might make it easy for the Raiders to pick up a couple divisional game wins. If you’re thinking Cable might be out next year, then you’re probably also guessing that the often-good Oakland defense will sputter and Jason Campbell won’t be productive at quarterback.
Odds at 2:1
Al Davis is tough to gauge. He might get an under-cooked steak for dinner next February and decide Cable is to blame.
John Fox – Carolina Panthers
In a lot of cities, you can attach a head coach to the starting quarterback, intertwining their fates. In Carolina for John Fox, that quarterback was Jake Delhomme. Back in February 2004, Delhomme was quarterbacking the Panthers into their first Super Bowl berth, and now he is gone after under performing basically since he got the new contract after the 2003-04 season. After attempting to win games with Matt Moore last year, John Fox will have to do better this season. He’s got great running backs and wide receivers whom other teams on this list would drool over. Also to keep in mind, Hall of Fame bound Bill Cowher is in waiting to replace John Fox. Cowher, who left the Pittsburgh Steelers a few seasons ago, lives in North Carolina and has stated that he wants to come back to coaching in the NFL when the time is right, but he wants to spend more time with his family. He passed up an opportunity to coach for the Cleveland Browns, the team he played for when he was in the NFL had a coaching vacancy. If Fox doesn’t deliver a playoff victory this year, I could easily see Cowher stepping in to replace him.
Odds at 2:1
The NFC South is strong (Falcons were in the playoffs the past two years, Saints are reigning Super Bowl Champions) and the QB situation (Matt Moore & Jimmy Clausen?) is not.
Wade Phillips – Dallas Cowboys
This one’s tough for me to say, because Jerry Jones honestly seems to love Wade Phillips like a brother. The question will be how much he respects the job Wade can do as a coach. He’s got plenty of tools in Dallas, and the Cowboys did make it to the playoffs last year. Phillips might be safe next season unless the Cowboys implode, but there would have to be a great coach waiting to take the job, and right now that situation doesn’t seem like it’s going to present itself, so I’d give Wade a pass this season.
Odds at 10:1
Jack Del Rio – Jacksonville Jaguars
The rest of the AFC South is getting better, even the Houston Texans, and the Jaguars are not. Some NFL analysts consider the team to be a place where talent goes to die, and I didn’t see any big changes in the off-season which would signal that the Jaguars are set to get better. Who’s to blame? Many think that Jack Del Rio is just waiting to make his exit, and while it’s hard to predict that he’s just “phoning it in”, he’s likely not as excited about the job as he was a year or two after he started.
Odds at 6:1
Josh McDaniels – Denver Broncos
Replace a future Hall of Fame coach like Mike Shanahan, get rid of a talented young quarterback (Jay Cutler), also trade away one of the top young talented wide receivers in the league (Brandon Marshall) and a tight end who was drafted just a couple years ago, and you’d better get results that show you know what you’re doing.
Odds at 5:1
Tom Coughlin – New York Giants
At 63 years of age, Coughlin might be the most out of touch coach in the NFL – which was seen as a good thing a couple seasons ago. He did win the Super Bowl in February of 2008, but after a promising 12-4 season to end 2008, Coughlin’s Giants lost in the first round of the playoffs to the Eagles, and last season they went 8-8. If the Giants don’t win 9 games, it could be very easy for the New York Giants to decide that Coughlin isn’t the answer long-term and decide to pull the switch – especially if Philly and the Cowboys are also looking for a good head coach.
Odds at 5:1
Brad Childress – Minnesota Vikings
This could be one of those situations where ownership expects more out of their investment than the production they’re seeing on the field and the decision is made that changes to the coaching staff would get them more bang for their buck. If Brett Favre doesn’t return this season or decides ahead of time that this will be his last season / he won’t be the quarterback for the Vikings for the season starting September of 2011, that could be good news for Childress. The Vikings ownership could decide that with the QB position being so valuable, they don’t want to pass on the chance to pick up a young QB who could be the future of the franchise just because Brad Childress wants to commit to Brett Favre for as long as Favre wants to play football – especially with Chicago (Jay Cutler), Green Bay (Aaron Rodgers) and Detroit (Matthew Stafford) all getting their young franchise quarterbacks.
Odds at 8:1
Lovie Smith – Chicago Bears
He’s got a quality young franchise quarterback (Jay Cutler), some good runningbacks (Matt Forte and Chester Taylor), one of the best defensive ends in the NFL (Julius Peppers) and had very few draft picks this April because of how he has helped manage the team. After losing the Super Bowl to the Colts in 2006, Smith has lead the team to 0 playoff appearances and a record of 23 wins and 25 losses.
Odds at 5:1
Raheem Morris – Tampa Bay Buccaneers
He had the Buccaneers finish last season with a record of 3-13 in his first year as head coach in Tampa Bay, and if for some reason he can’t get more than 4 wins this season, the fans and ownership might have nightmares from decades ago, and the trigger could be pulled.
Odds at 5:1
Coaches Who Should Have 1 Year of Rope
Other websites claim that the following coaches are on the hot seat, but I’d have to disagree:
Pete Carroll – Seattle Seahawks
Many expect Carroll to have a bright return to the NFL. If he stumbles out of the block and doesn’t even get 8 wins this season, I think he’d at least get one more year to prove he’s capable of bringing his winning ways back to the land of professionals – which I think he will.
Eric Mangini – Cleveland Browns
The Browns didn’t amass too many wins last season, but by the end of the year you could really tell that Mangini was finding out who his star players were. With Mike Holmgren showing up in town, Mangini could get a free pass this season while he tries to work with Holmgren’s overall plan. A departure after this season would mean that Holmgren didn’t like what he saw AT ALL from Mangini, which would really surprise me. I expect “the Man-genius” to thrive with Holmgren.
